[xx1943]

Hi all members of BIL

Yesterday the following hand came up in BIL

Scoring: MP

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Bidding: 1♠ pass 2♠ pass 4♠

1. ♣ 6 3 A 2 taken by WEST
2. ♣ K T 5 4 taken by WEST
3. ♦ 5 Q 3 2 taken by NORTH
4. ♥ 10 2 A 5 taken by SOUTH
5. ♠ 4 5 9 Q taken by EAST
6. ♦ 4 7 T K taken by NORTH
7. ♠ A ................................... curtains result-1

What do you think? (Experts please wait with your comments a while, or give the solution hidden.)
1) Was declarer unlucky, because opponents found the best lead?
2) Did declarer made a mistake?
If yes, what was the mistake, how should the hand be played?
3) What are the probabilities for the different distributions of the spade suit?
4) What is the best play of the spade-suit.


Now try this one:

Scoring: MP

---

How do you now play 4♠ (same bidding and same play to the first 3 tricks)?

Good luck (good technique is better )

Cheers

Al

[Free]

Spoiler

I think the best play is ♠A and then small to the J. This works with ♠ 2-2 or 3-1 with a stiff top honour.
If you want to finesse twice, then just overtake ♥Q and you have 2 entries in dummy.

[EDIT] hidden now...

[Fluffy]

xx1943, on Sep 16 2004, 09:23 AM, said:

What do you think? (Experts please wait with your comments a while, or give the solution hidden.)

I wonder Free, you don´t consider yourself an expert, or you get problems with english? :-P

[Free]

This post was about HALF this length when I posted!!! Only posted until trick 2, and then a ♦, that was it...

[luke warm]

i don't consider myself an expert, but i'll hide my comments anyway.. i think

Spoiler

that i agree witn my non-expert, non-english speaking friend <grin>

[xx1943]

Free, on Sep 16 2004, 03:45 PM, said:

This post was about HALF this length when I posted!!! Only posted until trick 2, and then a ♦, that was it...

Sry my mistake. The post was unintentional submitted when in work.
Al

[inquiry]

Ok.. while we wait for an expert to come along and tell us how to play this, I will take a stab. Don't take the fact that (currently) my answer is hidden to make any suggestion about what I think my skill level might be. Probably hid my answer to keep from confusing most people.

Spoiler

1) Was declarer unlucky, because opponents found the best lead?

Yes on any suit at trick one but club, the hand will easily make.

2) Did declarer made a mistake?

Yes. He made a huge mistake in spades. He ignored restricted choice of course, but more than that, he misplayed on the first round of spades.

The way to play the hand revolves around the spade suit. Some of the possible spade distributions mean certian down (for instatance all four or any three behind declearer), so we will ignrore those. Ane when you lead a spade from dummy and WEST plays low, that eliminates other possible disributions. Given that west played teh spade "x" what are the possible (wining) distributions? See number 3. (YES I know these are not the percentages of making it, for this simple math I am ignoring those hands where you CAN NOT make it).

3) What are the probabilities for the different distributions of the spade suit?

For these, I will use the letter H for either K oor Q of spades. West (in front of declerer) can hold (where we can make). Note these do reflect actually chance of success, just when something will work, the percentages of the play that does.

1 - Hx    15.49%
2 - Tx    30.98%
3 - HTx    28.40%
4 - HHx   14.2%
5 - HHTx  10.92%

Note his having doubleton HH (KQ) onside is gone when RHO plays the x, as is any singleton with H or T, and doublton KT or QT onside (since Ten wasn't played).

Your three spade options when the "x" is played are:
Play ACE, wins in cases 1. 2. 3 for a nice 74.88%. Note if you drop K or Q from behind you, you must cross in dummy and lead up to the JACK in case RHO has KTx.

Play the JACK wins in case 1, 2 and 4. This is a respectiful 60.67%

Play low to the nine, works in case 2, and would work in case 5 if you lead the six or seven from dummy and let it ride when WEST played low. Otherwise, you lack the entries to dummy to hook him the required three times. floated the spade SEVEN at as long as you lead the the seven the second time and duck in your. This comes to the a total of 41.9 percent. And you can make in case 1 or case 4 as well, as long as you guess which play is superior... going up with the ace on the second round (case 1), or crossing to dummy, and leading low spade to the AJ through HT. This is were restriced choice comes in. If EAST had KQ doubleton, he could win King or Queen. But if he had stiff K or stiff Q, his choices was limited. Thus, the odds for playing to the AJ with hook on the second round is better (28.4 versus 15.49 for the hook). This is not surprising.. this is the 2/1 ratio you expect for such restricted choice. So when the nine loses to King or queen. You should hook the second spade. This raises the play to the nine up to 70.31%. Playing ACE on second round give you odds only of 57.4%. So you can see that the line of play taken was the worse of the three possible when the spade "x" was played.

4) What is the best play of the spade-suit.

Spade ACE at trick five. IF no big honor shows, continue. If LHO drops King or Queen, cross to dummy and lead towards the jack.

Ben

[jillybean]

Ok, I'm eligible,

I have 2 ♣ losers and possible spade loser.

Spades can be distributed 2-2, 3-1, 1-3 (or 4-0/0-4 in that case I'm going down)

You can finnese once against west holding ♠KQx.
You can't guard against east holding ♠KQx

If ♠ are held:
Qx:Kx or
Kx:Qx or
KQ:xx or
xx:KQ or
Kxx:Q or
Qxx:K

You can hold ♠ loser to one by playing ♠Ace.

Given the time to work it out - thats what I'd do, I hope its an unclocked tournament.

The percentage play? It looks like play the Ace to me but I don't know.

jillybean

[jillybean]

xx1943, on Sep 16 2004, 02:23 AM, said:

Now try this one:

Dealer: North Vul: None Scoring: MP

♠ AJ983 ♥ AT2 ♦ AKQ ♣ 102 ♠ 764 ♥ KQ72 ♦ J872 ♣ 43

How do you now play 4♠ (same bidding and same play to the first 3 tricks)?

I'd call the experts in

I think the only way to make this is playing low to ♥Ace
then finesse the ♠J

contract only makes with:
K10 Qxx or
Q10 Kxx

Any other spade combination & youre down.
Now lets hear how it should be done!

jillybean

[inquiry]

jillybean2, on Sep 16 2004, 10:19 PM, said:

xx1943, on Sep 16 2004, 02:23 AM, said:

Now try this one:

Dealer: North Vul: None Scoring: MP

♠ AJ983 ♥ AT2 ♦ AKQ ♣ 102 ♠ 764 ♥ KQ72 ♦ J872 ♣ 43

How do you now play 4♠ (same bidding and same play to the first 3 tricks)?

I'd call the experts in

I think the only way to make this is playing low to ♥Ace
then finesse the ♠J

contract only makes with:
K10 Qxx or
Q10 Kxx

Any other spade combination & youre down.
Now lets hear how it should be done!

jillybean

win diamond in dummy.

play heart to KING (ace is in dummy)

play low spade and if west plays low, hook the nine.

if you had another entry to your hand, say in diamond, you could survive west with KTxx. But when the nine loses to east stiff honor. A heart to your hand, the spade 7 and west will cover and you will be locked in dummy.

But you can make if west has

KQ
KT
QT
KTx
QTx
KQT

And amazingly, against a thinking defender,
Txx why?

Because if the nine loses to the K (or Q), and you lead low and LHO plays low, go up with the ACE and drop the doubleton KQ of side... but againt a great defender with Txx he will play ten on the second round, so.. .argh....

Ok, so there is a piece of what i think about this ending. If you can guess west with Txx your chance of making is no better than about 30%

[bearmum]

[inquiry]

bearmum, on Sep 17 2004, 04:10 AM, said:

The way I would play ...lead first round of♠ playing the A♠ (drops the Q♠
THEN get back to south with a ♥ play another ♠ and cover whatever W plays

I can't quote % but that feels right way to play this particular combination of trumps to me

Looks 100% to me....

Ben

[Stephen Tu]

The best play in spades in isolation depends on how good a defender you are playing against. Against best defense taking 2 hooks is best, as basically you are picking up kqtx & kqt onside, giving up to only KQ offside. This is assuming West will play the T from Tx, KTx, QTx on the first round with some frequency. Against defender who always follow low, then you can do better by play ace on x & J over T.

On 1st hand need to play ace first since limited entries. 8 cd fit hand should play for KQ/KT/QT/KTx/QTx onside by finesse twice.