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ACTUAL TRICKS TAKEN Zar+fit 9 10 11 12 13 Score Ave 40 1 0 0 0 0 140 140 41 6 0 0 0 0 840 140 42 10 0 0 0 0 1400 140 43 22 0 0 0 0 3080 140 44 36 1 0 0 0 5210 141 45 87 5 0 0 0 13030 142 46 146 12 0 0 0 22480 142 47 195 29 1 0 0 32430 144 48 285 44 5 0 0 48380 145 49 387 91 7 0 0 71050 146 50 473 134 12 0 0 91400 148 51 478 232 34 2 0 113620 152 52 495 297 43 5 0 121740 145 53 526 341 89 5 1 159880 166 54 419 409 111 18 0 209420 219 55 381 404 140 14 0 220350 235 56 286 418 192 22 1 258730 282 57 235 408 255 45 1 296470 314 58 149 312 255 66 2 271040 346 59 105 275 282 86 6 281490 373 60 67 190 256 83 3 233020 389 61 48 199 226 107 15 241890 407 62+ no cntl 58 208 335 1* 0 123430 205 62 4 46 116 111 11 98290 341 63 2 23 99 98 11 94300 405 64 5 19 65 96 18 100810 497 65 0 8 64 97 18 107640 576 66 0 9 28 79 16 89480 678 67+ no cntl 8 20 118 159 0 139920 459 67 0 2 1 28 26 36560 641 68 0 1 5 10 17 23170 702 69 0 1 3 6 26 37560 1043 70 0 0 2 12 14 19940 712 71 0 0 2 6 11 15710 827 72 0 0 1 3 13 19180 1128 73 0 0 1 1 6 8710 1089 74 0 0 0 1 3 4480 1120 75 0 0 0 0 6 9060 1510 76+ 0 0 0 2 4 5940 990 Total 3631270 275
These hands only include those which can take at least 9 tricks. There would be many more hands that take 8 or fewer if this were allowed. The SCORE is the sum total of points that would be won on these hands if bid to the level predicted by the points (not vul). AVE is the average score per hand. So for example, the 52-point Zar hands have 495 going down (-50) + 297*420 + 43*450 + 5*480 = 121740 points or an average of 145 points per hand. Note that if I had allowed hands that can only take 7 or 8 tricks, this score would be even lower as you include hands that go down multiple tricks. I was also generous in allowing the 57-61 point hands to bid only 4M and never 5M. The hands separated out under “62+ no cntl” means that there were 2+ top tricks missing and I assume the pair could stop at 5M. There is one hand in the bunch that has 2 top tricks missing, but the slam still makes since the defense can’t cash them due to blockage.
Now let’s look at the numbers for TSP:
ACTUAL TRICKS TAKEN TSP+fit 9 10 11 12 13 Score Ave 26 3 0 0 0 0 420 140 27 8 0 0 0 0 1120 140 28 18 0 0 0 0 2520 140 29 39 1 0 0 0 5630 141 30 81 1 0 0 0 11510 140 31 142 8 0 0 0 21240 142 32 226 22 1 0 0 35580 143 33 356 50 2 0 0 58740 144 34 401 82 8 0 0 71680 146 35 502 129 9 0 0 94010 147 36 498 227 22 0 0 112710 151 37 543 308 35 3 0 136070 153 38 523 398 75 5 0 157030 157 39 421 417 104 11 0 206170 216 40 375 460 150 12 0 247710 248 41 240 420 224 19 1 274830 304 42 191 383 229 40 2 274580 325 43 118 340 278 70 1 296110 367 44 81 280 290 70 4 279690 386 45 57 195 275 107 3 255690 401 46 29 142 228 94 5 208460 419 47 22 99 212 105 13 192910 428 48 14 68 168 107 9 159410 436 49+ no cntl 13 51 173 0 0 71400 301 49 0 12 61 110 28 129430 613 50 3 11 50 99 15 104870 589 51 1 10 34 78 23 94470 647 52 2 1 20 71 27 94550 781 53 0 2 10 54 18 70000 833 54+ no cntl 0 5 30 78 0 73440 650 54 2 12 16 22960 765 55 1 7 20 29550 1055 56 1 4 19 28190 1175 57 1 0 2 7 9970 997 58 1 7 10520 1315 59 2 3 4430 886 60 1 0 3 4230 1058 61 2 2 2920 730 62+ 3 4530 1510 Total 3859280 294
TSP scores about 19 points per hand more than Zar. Most of these points come from Zar overbidding on many of the games and slams, even when all the controls are there. I limited the hands (by request) to 9+ tricks because that makes Zar look better. If we lower that requirement Zar looks even worse when it goes down multiple tricks.
Tysen
