[vang]

Scoring: IMP

bidding at the table:
1♠ - X - 2♠ - p
4♠ - 4NT - X - 5♦
p - p - X - all pass

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NS got a poor result on this one.

[helene_t]

I think South has enough O-D for the 5-level, regardless of N's double.

[helene_t]

(double post)

[ycos]

I think 4♥(if is not splinter) is more good then 4♠ but pass @ 5♦ is worst then 4♠.

[jdeegan]

South's hand dictates a 5♠ call immediately after 5♦. Passing 5♦ and then bidding 5♠ would be 'pass and pull' which is a slam try. Why does South want to bid 5♠?

Partner has four possible offensive features:
1. ♠ king
2. ♥ ace
3. minor suit ace
4. ♥ jack OR doubleton ♥
His 2♠ bid limits him to a max of two of these. He might just have one. If he has two, we make 5♠. If he has one, we are down one except when we are missing the ♠ king, and it is onside. If 5♠ is down one, the bid wins only if 5♦ makes. It is not a favorite to do so since we have potential tricks in spades, hearts and from picture cards in the minor suits, but it will happen some of the time.

Prospective outcomes are:
1. +650: 5♠ making
2. -100: 5♠ down one
3. +200 (or, occasionally +500): 5♦ down one or two
4. -750: 5♦ making

Assume for illustrative purposes that the odds are 70% that pard has only one offensive trick and 30% that he has two. In addition, let us assume the odds are 20% we have two defensive tricks, 70% we have three and 10% we have four. Our expected scores are:

For 5♠: .3(650) + .7(-100) = +125
For 5♦ doubled: .2*(-750) + .7(200) +.1(500) =+40

The example above illustrates an instance where 5♠ is an underdog to make while we are a strong favorite to beat 5♦. However, because the scoring system heavily rewards us when 5♠ makes, bidding it is a solid winner over the long haul.

Simply put, 5♠ either wins big, or it is cheap insurance.

[han]

Still, north's double of 4NT was a nothing bid.

[helene_t]

Hannie, on Sep 6 2007, 05:08 PM, said:

Still, north's double of 4NT was a nothing bid.

It discouraged S from bidding 5, which makes sense given N's hand, doesn't it?

[pbleighton]

South has to bid 5S over 5D. Otherwise partner will assume 19+ points and defense.

Peter

[mikeh]

My view is that S should definitely not pass 5♦.... and this is true regardless of whether the pass was forcing or not.

Personally, the pass over 5♦ would not be forcing, and that makes N's x a clear penalty double, which he doesn't have. However, so long as S got his club ruff, the double is slightly better than (my choice as N) a pass... but that was not much consolation.

'6-5 come-alive: a Baze Bols Bridge Tip from a long time ago... it's still true today.

'When in doubt. bid one more'" another oldie but goldie, at imps.

And, finally, S should realize that the auction to 5♦ sounds exactly like one of those hands on which both sides can make a LOT of tricks.

Bridge is a game for optimists: S was a pessimist.

[han]

helene_t, on Sep 6 2007, 10:30 AM, said:

Hannie, on Sep 6 2007, 05:08 PM, said:

Still, north's double of 4NT was a nothing bid.

It discouraged S from bidding 5, which makes sense given N's hand, doesn't it?

Not to me.

[skjaeran]

I've got absolutely no sympathy for north's two doubles. And I'd prefer 4♥ by south to 4♠, assuming this shows a suit, not a splinter. But I still think south's pass over 5♦ was the worst call in this sequnce.

I'd not make a t/o double with west's hand either, but that was the "best" call in a series of blunders. Only 1♠ and 2♠ are bids I agree with.

[Codo]

I don´t get why 1♠ X 2 ♠ pass
4 ♥ now should show a real suit.

It is a splinter. If West had bid 2 NT to show the minors, 4 HEart natural makes some sense, but after this bidding.

Maybe West had to double because they have to with any hand with 18+ HCPs, or because their two suiters are always weak. Else I have no sympathy for this bid.

The X of 4 NT maybe shows a balanced hand, maximum and the interesst in doubling them at the 5. level. Okay, close.

The pass of 5 Diamond shows a hand which want to defend, which much defence or a hand which pulls pds double as a slam try. This hand qualifies for none of these bids, so the pass now is by far the worst bid.

North double of 5 Diamond is fine. His hand looks like defending, not like 5 Spade.

[ycos]

Is interesting to see what is the bid on this hand if S open with 3♥ Omega ( preemtive in ♠ or 65 ♠+any, with 12(13,14)-14(15,16)HCP in 65 )