Bermuda Bowl Quarter Final Grand Slam
#1
Posted 2003-November-09, 18:59
Dlr W JT984
N/S Vul K6
952
AQ864 K9
K2 A65
- AQT853
AQT876 KJ
T53
Q73
J9742
43
7C by West on a Trump lead
In the vugraph there was some discussion regarding the best line on this hand.
At the table Karaivanov and Brogeland took different lines in the Bulgaria Norway match.
Karaivanov simply played to ruff up the spades.
Brogeland played first on diamonds.
Fortunately for the declarers both lines succeed.
But what is the best line?
The spade line copes with trumps 4-1 and spades no worse than 4-2.
The diamond line may require trumps 3-2 and diamonds 4-3 or a short dK but having spades 3-3 in reserve. There are also some squeeze chances.
Wayne
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#2
Posted 2003-November-10, 00:06
Quote
Quote
Dlr W JT984
N/S Vul K6
952
AQ864 K9
K2 A65
- AQT853
AQT876 KJ
T53
Q73
J9742
43
7C by West on a Trump lead
In the vugraph there was some discussion regarding the best line on this hand.
At the table Karaivanov and Brogeland took different lines in the Bulgaria Norway match.
Karaivanov simply played to ruff up the spades.
Brogeland played first on diamonds.
Fortunately for the declarers both lines succeed.
But what is the best line?
The spade line copes with trumps 4-1 and spades no worse than 4-2.
The diamond line may require trumps 3-2 and diamonds 4-3 or a short dK but having spades 3-3 in reserve. There are also some squeeze chances.
Wayne
take the lead on table, diamond A discard a spade, diamond ruff back to hand.
If diamond K drop you are home.
If not, play spade, ruff the third spade high on table, heart cross to hand and draw trumps
Succeed will no worse than 4-1 trump 4-2 spade + the chance of singleton K, Kx diamond from any defenders.
If you wanna take the risk of diamond 5-2, you can also ruff 1 more round of
diamond to seek chance for Kxx, but I think using the line of play for spade is better in probability.
When Brogeland played on diamonds he did so by twice ruffing low diamonds without cashing the dA. And he used a second trump entry so had no trump left to ruff a spade if necessary.
Wayne
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#3
Posted 2003-November-10, 07:17
Quote
Brd 28 NS/W
AQ864 K9
K2 A65
- AQT853
AQT876 KJ
7C by West on a Trump lead
IMO the best line is CJ, D ruff, CK D ruff with CT, CQ
A. If trumps are 3-2, then SK, DA, D ruff.
B. If trumps are 4-2, then cash black winners
This succeeds when...
1. DK drops in four (A) or three (... or
2. SJT drop in three... or
3. LHO has longer diamonds and
RHO has longer spades.
"Sto pro veritate"
#4
Posted 2003-November-10, 11:15
If West is short in diamonds, and drops a diamond honor (JACK OR KING after one or two ruffs), he is also home. So all those odds add up to something like 90.3%. In addition, anytime EAST has 5 diamonds to the KJ (only 10% of the time), there is still the chance that spades are 3-3 or that someone has doubleton SPADE-JT, or that East has four (+) spades in addition to the long diamonds for a S-D squeeze. The odds of catching EAST also with 4+S or 3S, or finding either player with JT doubleton is roughly 50% (given EAST's 5D to West 2D, type of split). So the overall odds of this line is greater than 95%. I also like not cashing the diamond ACE.
Very well played indeed, by Brogeland under a lot of pressure. His line seems clearly superior to one choosen by Karaivanov in the open room (ruff a spade in dummy).
Ben
(odds of 6-0 or 5-1 spades is 16%, although you can be sure that EAST is not void in spades, shaving maybe 1% off this total. That still makes the ruff a spade in dummy line only 85% or so.)
#5
Posted 2003-November-10, 11:30
W E
1C 1D
1S 2H(4TH SUIT FORCING)
2S 3D
3N 4C
4H 4S?
... 6N
I think here 3D is a very bad bid. After pd showing 6-5 in black suits. what is the point of 3d? Here the best bid is 3c, telling pd you have very good clube spt. After 3C, i think it is easy to bid 7.
It is a pity many commentators didnt discuss much of the bidding, only junyi_zhu mentioned he like 3c here.
#6
Posted 2003-November-10, 11:42
Quote
Don't ask me to explain it, but this was the auctions... for bulgaria...
1C 2C
2H 3D
4S 4N
5S 7C
P
For Norway
1C 1D
1S 1NT
2S 3C
4D 4N
5S 5N
6H 7C
Pass
#7
Posted 2003-November-10, 12:29
Quote
Quote
Don't ask me to explain it, but this was the auctions... for bulgaria...
1C 2C
2H 3D
4S 4N
5S 7C
P
For Norway
1C 1D
1S 1NT
2S 3C
4D 4N
5S 5N
6H 7C
Pass
Thx Ben.Norwagian guys' bidding seems quite natural except 1N
#8
Posted 2003-November-10, 12:54
Quote
Quote
For Norway
1C 1D
1S 1NT
2S 3C
4D 4N
5S 5N
6H 7C
Pass
Thx Ben.Norwagian guys' bidding seems quite natural except 1N
Not really, both 1D and 1NT was alerted, and a natural 1NT rebid with that monster seems unreal. Also note the jump to 7C on a doubleton where clubs was only bid once (alhtough if biddign spades twice showed 6C+, guess that is ok). I think there was some relays here, and Opener was descibing his hand (shape) and stregth.
Ben
#9
Posted 2003-November-10, 12:57
If it was Grotheim - Aa, it was undoubtedly artificial
Otherwise, I would expect relatively natural
#10
Posted 2003-November-10, 13:14
Quote
If it was Grotheim - Aa, it was undoubtedly artificial
Otherwise, I would expect relatively natural
It was not Glenn Grotheim or Terje A, as they were sitting out when this hand was played. The Norway pair who bid like this was...Erik Saelensminde and Boye Brogeland
But one thing, this wasn't natural. Either 1D or 1NT had to be game force, or else the auction doesn't make any sense.
Ben
#11
Posted 2003-November-10, 15:08
Quote
Quote
Don't ask me to explain it, but this was the auctions... for bulgaria...
1C 2C
2H 3D
4S 4N
5S 7C
P
For Norway
1C 1D
1S 1NT
2S 3C
4D 4N
5S 5N
6H 7C
Pass
For Norway:
1D was explained as either diamonds weak or game-force.
1NT confirmed a game-force
Wayne
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon